A quantitative wealth management practice

Wealth management, practiced as an applied science.

Abstract

Bayes Wealth serves scientists, founders, and technology professionals through the moments when equity becomes wealth — IPOs, lockup windows, acquisitions — and through the long, tax-aware compounding that follows. Every position is a belief we are prepared to update.

Schedule an introductory call Read the research notes

30 minutes. No preparation required. No pitch.

A wide prior distribution updating into a narrower, taller posterior as evidence arrives — Bayes' theorem prior posterior evidence P(H | E) ∝ P(E | H) · P(H)
Fig. 1 — Bayes' theorem: what we believe, updated by what we observe. As evidence accumulates, a wide prior sharpens into a confident posterior. Certainty is earned, not asserted.
§ 1

Four propositions

I.

Diversification is the only free lunch.

Risk should be allocated deliberately, not accumulated by accident. Most portfolios we examine are not designed; they are sedimented — layers of past decisions, employer stock, and untested assumptions.1

II.

Beliefs are updated, not defended.

Every allocation is a hypothesis with a probability attached. When the evidence changes, the probabilities change, and the portfolio follows — in that order. Positions are still sized so that no single outcome — a failed trial, a broken lockup, a bad year — can compromise the plan.2

III.

After-tax, after-fee returns are the only returns.

For most households, the most reliable improvements come not from prediction but from engineering: asset location, tax-lot management, timing of exercises and sales, and relentless cost control.3

IV.

The investor is the largest risk factor in the portfolio.

Process exists to protect the plan from the moment. Every decision here traces to a thesis — so the reasoning can be revisited later, by you and by us.4

1Markowitz, H. (1952). "Portfolio Selection." The Journal of Finance, 7(1).

2Bayes, T. (1763). "An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.

3French, K. (2008). "Presidential Address: The Cost of Active Investing." The Journal of Finance, 63(4).

4Barber, B. & Odean, T. (2000). "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth." The Journal of Finance, 55(2).

§ 2

Who this practice is built for

Biotech & pharma

Scientists and executives with equity on the line

IPOs, 180-day lockup windows, PDUFA-date volatility, and acquisition payouts create sudden, concentrated wealth on a compressed timeline. We plan the transition from equity to durable capital — before the window opens.

"My lockup expires in four months. What should I be doing right now?"

Technology

Engineers and professionals with complex equity comp

RSUs, ISOs and the AMT trap, 10b5-1 plans, tender offers at private companies, and concentrated positions in a single ticker. We quantify the risk you are actually carrying and design the tax-aware path out of it.

"How much of my net worth should be in my employer's stock? Show me the math."

Founders & early employees

Builders approaching a liquidity event

QSBS under §1202 — including the expanded 2025 rules — secondaries, exit structuring, and the estate planning that should happen before a term sheet, not after. Coordination with your CPA and counsel is part of the work.

"Does my stock qualify for QSBS, and what is that worth to me?"

§ 3

The process

Diagnostic

We read your current portfolio like a dataset: factor exposures, embedded taxes, fee drag, and concentration risk. You receive the analysis whether or not we work together.

Design

An investment policy tailored to your balance sheet, equity calendar, and tax picture — scenario-tested against the outcomes that would actually hurt.

Implementation

Tax-lot-level execution: asset location across account types, staged diversification of concentrated stock, and coordination of exercises, sales, and 10b5-1 plans.

Measurement

Quarterly reporting of after-tax results against the plan. When we change course, the reasoning is documented — so the record shows why, not just what.

§ 4

Research notes

Working note · Equity events

The Lockup Expiration Playbook: 180 Days to Prepare

A step-by-step framework for the window between IPO and lockup expiry — taxes, 10b5-1 plans, and how much to sell.

Read the note →
Working note · Tax

QSBS After the 2025 Expansion: A Field Guide

What the new exclusion caps and holding-period tiers mean for founders and early employees — and the mistakes that forfeit the benefit.

Read the note →
Working note · Risk

Unwinding a Concentrated Position: A Decision Framework

When to sell, how fast, and how to think about the stock you know best — quantitatively, not emotionally.

Read the note →
§ 5

About the Founder

Brian McRae, founder and portfolio manager at Bayes Wealth

Brian McRae

Founder & Portfolio Manager · Series 7 & 66

Brian has spent 16 years in finance and asset management, beginning with a UBS internship in college. He founded Bayes Wealth to do the work the way he always believed it should be done — personally and quantitatively — for scientists, founders, and technology professionals navigating the years when equity turns into wealth.

He treats markets as a quantifiable, partially solvable puzzle; the research, the models, and the reading are not just the job but how he spends his free time. Bayes Wealth is that obsession, pointed at client portfolios. Brian lives in Los Angeles and serves clients nationwide.

§ 6

One fee, stated plainly

0.90% OF ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT, ANNUALLY

No commissions in advisory accounts. No products to sell you. The incentive is alignment.

IncludedPortfolio design and ongoing management, tax-lot-level implementation, and disciplined rebalancing.
IncludedEquity compensation planning: RSU/ISO strategy, AMT modeling, 10b5-1 coordination, lockup and QSBS analysis.
IncludedQuarterly after-tax reporting and an annual planning review of the full balance sheet.
IncludedCoordination with your CPA and estate counsel, including a year-end tax package prepared for your accountant.
EngagementRelationships typically begin at $250,000 in investable assets. Clients are served nationwide by video and in person in Los Angeles, California.

Advisory fees are described in full in the firm's disclosure documents, available upon request and at the links below. Fees are one consideration among several in evaluating any advisory relationship.

§ 7

Questions, answered directly

Is there an account minimum?

Relationships typically begin at $250,000 in investable assets — and "typically" is meant literally; we make exceptions where the fit is right. If you're approaching a liquidity event that will get you there, we're glad to start the conversation early — the planning before the event is often the most valuable part.

Where is my money actually held?

Your assets are held in your name at National Financial Services LLC (NFS) — a Fidelity Investments company and one of the largest custody and clearing providers in the country. Bayes Wealth never takes custody of client assets; we are authorized only to manage the account and deduct the disclosed advisory fee.

Do you work with clients outside Los Angeles?

Yes. The practice serves clients nationwide by video, subject to state registration requirements. Most client relationships are conducted remotely.

What happens on the introductory call?

Thirty minutes. You describe your situation; we tell you honestly whether this practice is a fit — and if it isn't, where we'd point you instead. No preparation is required and nothing is pitched.

I already have accounts elsewhere. Is switching disruptive?

Usually not. Accounts generally transfer in kind — your positions move without being sold — and any repositioning afterward is done deliberately and tax-aware, on a schedule we set together.

Are you a fiduciary?

Yes. When providing investment advisory services, Brian is held to a fiduciary standard of care — a legal duty to act in your best interest.

Begin

Start with a conversation, not a pitch.

Bring a question — a lockup date, an offer letter, a portfolio you inherited from your past decisions. You'll leave the call knowing more than you arrived with, whatever you decide.

Schedule an introductory call

Prefer email? brian@bayeswealth.com